气候变暖对早稻播种期的影响

为了更好地利用气候变暖背景下的气候资源,本研究通过分析目前温州市各县(市、区)的早稻播种日期,发现目前各地的早稻播种期安排在应对气候变暖上差异很大,大部分地方随气候变暖略有改变,极少数地方大幅提早播种,总体上不能很好利用当前的气候资源。针对温州早稻播种期没有充分利用气候资源的现状,在温州各县(市、区)国家站历史日平均气温资料基础上计算各地历年的稳定通过11℃初日,并利用SPSS软件进行方差齐次性分析和均值差异显著性T检验,系统分析回暖期的变化,得出除山区泰顺外各县(市、区)的稳定通过11℃初日在2000年前后均发生显著改变:2000年后的11℃稳定通过初日80%保证率及平均值均较之前提前1旬以上。结合播种期现状,提出当地气象部门应该在3月中旬初开始制作发布早稻播种适宜天气预测,当地农业部门和种植户根据预测结果和自身茬口计划合理安排播种的改进办法。这一改进可以在应对气候变化实践中帮助农民提高收入。     

Composition and diversity of fish and fish catches in closures and open-access fisheries of Kenya

Abstract  Catch composition, relative abundance and diversity of fish catches in open access and three old fisheries closures were compared and contrasted with previous ecological studies. There was less variation in catch community composition among the fishing grounds than the closures, suggesting that fishing has homogenised catch composition. The trap survey found that some parrotfish [ Leptoscarus vaigiensis (Quoy &Gaimard), Calotomus carolinus (Valenciennes) and Scarus ghobban Forsskål] were relatively more common and that some important predators of macro-invertebrates [ Balistapus undulatus (Mungo Park) and Cheilinus chlorourus (Bloch)] were less common in the fishing grounds than closures. Unexpectedly, and in contrast to visual census results, cumulative number of species in catch surveys was higher in open access than closures sites. This may result from fishers covering more area and habitat or a reduction in the catch of competitively subordinate and rare species by aggressive, early-caught fish that can dominate bait. Comparisons of ecological visual census surveys and fisheries-dependent methods indicated that small differences in catch composition can reflect larger ecological differences and that baiting methods can underestimate biodiversity. Ecological impacts of fishing and large-scale changes in marine ecosystems must be considerable given the many fisheries-dependent assessments report modest changes.     

Albacore (Thunnus alalunga) fishing ground in relation to oceanographic conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean using remotely sensed satellite data

Satellite‐based oceanographic data of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface chlorophyll‐a concentration (SSC), and sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) together with catch data were used to investigate the relationship between albacore fishing ground and oceanographic conditions and also to predict potential habitats for albacore in the western North Pacific Ocean. Empirical cumulative distribution function and high catch data analyses were used to calculate preferred ranges of the three oceanographic conditions. Results indicate that highest catch per unit efforts (CPUEs) corresponded with areas of SST 18.5–21.5°C, SSC 0.2–0.4 mg m^?3, and SSHA ?5.0 to 32.2 cm during the winter in the period 1998–2000. We used these ranges to generate a simple prediction map for detecting potential fishing grounds. Statistically, to predict spatial patterns of potential albacore habitats, we applied a combined generalized additive model (GAM) / generalized linear model (GLM). To build our model, we first constructed a GAM as an exploratory tool to identify the functional relationships between the environmental variables and CPUE; we then made parameters out of these relationships using the GLM to generate a robust prediction tool. The areas of highest CPUEs predicted by the models were consistent with the potential habitats on the simple prediction map and observation data, suggesting that the dynamics of ocean eddies (November 1998 and 2000) and fronts (November 1999) may account for the spatial patterns of highest albacore catch rates predicted in the study area. The results also suggest that multispectrum satellite data can provide useful information to characterize and predict potential tuna habitats.     

Larval fish assemblages and water mass structure off the oligotrophic south-western Australian coast

Larval fish assemblages were sampled using replicated oblique bongo net tows along a five‐station transect extending from inshore (18 m depth) to offshore waters (1000 m depth) off temperate south‐western Australia. A total of 148 taxa from 93 teleost families were identified. Larvae of Gobiidae and Blenniidae were abundant inshore, while larvae of pelagic and reef‐dwelling families, such as Clupeidae, Engraulidae, Carangidae and Labridae were common in continental shelf waters. Larvae of oceanic families, particularly Myctophidae, Phosichthyidae and Gonostomatidae, dominated offshore assemblages. Multivariate statistical analyses revealed larval fish assemblages to have a strong temporal and spatial structure. Assemblages were distinct among seasons, and among inshore, continental shelf and offshore sampling stations. Inshore larval fish assemblages were the most seasonal, in terms of species composition and abundance, with offshore assemblages the least seasonal. However, larval fish assemblages were most closely correlated to water mass, with species distributions reflecting both cross‐shelf and along‐shore oceanographic processes and events. Similarity profile (SIMPROF) analysis suggested the presence of twelve distinct larval fish assemblages, largely delineated by water depth and season. The strength and position of the warm, southward flowing Leeuwin Current, and of the cool, seasonal, northward flowing Capes Current, were shown to drive much of the variability in the marine environment, and thus larval fish assemblages.     

Environmental preferences of longlining for yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the tropical high seas of the Indian Ocean

A survey of yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares , fishing ground was carried out on board of the Chinese longliners from September 15 to December 12, 2005 in the tropical high seas of the Indian Ocean. The depth at which each yellowfin tuna was hooked was estimated using a stepwise regression analysis of theoretical hook depth and observed average hook depth measured using a temperature depth recorder. Water temperature, salinity, chlorophyll  a , dissolved oxygen and thermocline, which are important variables influencing yellowfin tuna habitats, were measured in the survey. Catch rates of yellowfin tuna were then analyzed with respect to depth, temperature, salinity, chlorophyll  a , dissolved oxygen and thermocline. We suggest that the optimum ranges of swimming depth, water temperature, chlorophyll  a and dissolved oxygen concentration for yellowfin tuna are 100.0–179.9 m, 15.0–17.9°C, 0.090–0.099  μ g L⁻¹, 2.50–2.99 mg L⁻¹, respectively; that salinity has less influence on the vertical distribution of adult yellowfin tuna; and that yellowfin tuna are mainly distributed within the thermocline in the high seas of the Indian Ocean. Our results match the yellowfin tuna's vulnerability to deep longline fishing gear well.     

Ocean scale hypoxia‐based habitat compression of Atlantic istiophorid billfishes

Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) below near‐surface optimums in the eastern tropical seas are among the largest contiguous areas of naturally occurring hypoxia in the world oceans, and are predicted to expand and shoal with global warming. In the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP), the surface mixed layer is defined by a shallow thermocline above a barrier of cold hypoxic water, where dissolved oxygen levels are ≤3.5 mL L^?1. This thermocline (～25–50 m) constitutes a lower hypoxic habitat boundary for high oxygen demand tropical pelagic billfish and tunas (i.e., habitat compression). To evaluate similar oceanographic conditions found in the eastern tropical Atlantic (ETA), we compared vertical habitat use of 32 sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) and 47 blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) monitored with pop‐up satellite archival tags in the ETA and western North Atlantic (WNA). Both species spent significantly greater proportions of their time in near‐surface waters when inside the ETA than when in the WNA. We contend that the near‐surface density of billfish and tunas increases as a consequence of the ETA OMZ, therefore increasing their vulnerability to overexploitation by surface gears. Because the ETA OMZ encompasses nearly all Atlantic equatorial waters, the potential impacts of overexploitation are a concern. Considering the obvious differences in catchability inside and outside the compression zones, it seems essential to standardize these catch rates separately to minimize inaccuracies in stock assessments for these species. This is especially true in light of global warming, which will likely exacerbate future compression impacts.     

中西太平洋鲣卵巢发育特征

根据2007年10月-2008年1月在中西太平洋采集的140个卵巢样本,利用组织学分析方法,研究了鲣卵巢的发育过程,详细描述了鲣卵巢、卵细胞的发育阶段。结果表明:(1) 组织学上,鲣的卵细胞发育过程分为6个时相,与之对应的,卵巢发育过程分为6个时期。(2) 鲣属于不同步产卵类型,卵巢内会同时出现不同时相的卵细胞。(3) 传统鉴定方法用于鲣卵巢发育状况时,存在不足之处,与组织学分析的结果差别较大,尤其是Ⅵ期的差别最大。(4) 调查海域的鲣至少有两个产卵高峰期,一个高峰期是11月底(12月初),另一个高峰期是12月底(1月初)。     

印度洋中南部水域金枪鱼延绳钓钓钩钩型对钓获对象的选择性

基于2008年9月至2009年4月在印度洋中南部水域金枪鱼延绳钓渔场收集的数据,研究分析和比较了3种钓钩钩型(传统金枪鱼钩、“J”形钩和圆形钩)的渔获效益及对钓捕对象的选择性。结果表明:(1) 从渔获种类上看,大眼金枪鱼和大青鲨金枪鱼钩钓获比例最高,“J”形钩和圆形钩的钓获比例相当;而长鳍金枪鱼则为金枪鱼钩钓获比例最高,其次为“J”形钩和圆形钩。(2) 大眼金枪鱼存活率以金枪鱼钩最高,“J”形钩最低;长鳍金枪鱼则为“J”形钩稍高于圆形钩,金枪鱼钩最低;大青鲨则以圆形钩最高,“J”形钩最低。(3) “J”形钩钓获的长鳍金枪鱼和鲨鱼平均叉长较金枪鱼钩和圆形钩稍大;而金枪鱼钩钓获的大眼金枪鱼平均叉长较圆形钩和“J”形钩稍大。(4) 3种钩型钓获的长鳍金枪鱼、大眼金枪鱼和大青鲨叉长分布均不存在显著性差异。     

西北印度洋大眼金枪鱼渔场预报模型建立与模块开发

根据1990—2003年印度洋大眼金枪鱼延绳钓渔业数据和美国国家海洋和大气管理局提供的海表温度、叶绿素-a历史环境数据,应用环境因子叠加方法,构建了西印度洋大眼金枪鱼渔场预报模型,用于金枪鱼渔场预报。分析得出各月适宜海表温度、叶绿素-a浓度范围和历史高产区空间位置;导入实时海表温度、叶绿素-a等遥感栅格数据,分别提取适宜海表温度、适宜叶绿素-a浓度和历史高产区的空间栅格数据集,最后在空间上对3种栅格数据进行空间叠加并取交集。交集所指空间区域即为大眼金枪鱼潜在渔场位置。通过精度检验,表明该模型渔场预报精度为60.5%。并以VC++6.0工具为开发平台,对此模型进行了设计开发,实现了模块预报西北印度洋大眼金枪鱼渔场。     

基于贝叶斯Schaefer模型的西北太平洋柔鱼资源评估与管理

利用基于贝叶斯统计方法的Schaefer模型分均匀分布、正态分布和随机分布3种方案,对西北太平洋柔鱼资源量进行评估,并对其管理策略做了风险分析。研究认为,在均匀分布的基准方案下,参数r、K和q的后验概率分布与先验概率分布存在较大差异,这表明本研究采用的年渔获量和CPUE数据为贝叶斯资源评估模型提供了足够多的信息。正态分布和随机分布2种方案下模型参数的预测值及估算的最大可持续产量较接近,但小于基准方案。研究认为,3种方案下,1996—2004年捕捞死亡率都远低于限制参考点F_0.1,1996—2004年渔获量也小于最大可持续产量,这表明目前西北太平洋柔鱼资源处于良好状况,没有遭受过度捕捞。决策分析表明,在相同的收获率情况下,基准方案得到的2019年资源量和渔获量均大于其它2种方案,但是资源崩溃的概率最大。保守的管理策略应将收获率控制在0.3左右,持续渔获量在13万t左右。